Thursday, February 24, 2011

Oscar Predictions

The Oscars are this Sunday, so I'll be posting my predictions for the show. I will add the same disclaimer that I did for my Golden Globes predictions: these are not my choices for who SHOULD win, just who I think will win. I have a much different picture of this year's best films than the Academy, which I will reveal shortly for my second annual Golden Schmoos. It's weird that it's almost already March and we're still obsessing over the 2010 film season, but that's just the way of things; even more so for your Midwestern filmgoer, who has to sit by and wait for all the important films to reach their cinemas. Personally, I'm waiting on THE ILLUSIONIST and BIUTIFUL. Anyway, here they are:

*I won't be making any predictions on the short subject nominations because they would be merely uninformed guesses, so I don't really see the point.

Best Documentary Feature:
EXIT THROUGH THE GIFT SHOP - I really liked this film, but my prediction is more based on the community I believe the Academy to be. They're going to want to seem hip and this film's winning might invite some attention from the filmmaker, the notorious Banksy, whom the award show has forbid from appearing in disguise.

Best Visual Effects:
INCEPTION - I believe the Academy will award this film with several smaller awards to make up for some supposed snubs.

Best Sound Editing:
INCEPTION - see above.

Best Sound Mixing:
THE SOCIAL NETWORK - Because the Academy will want to pad its Best Picture with a bunch of awards.

Best Song:
"If I Rise" from 127 HOURS - This is going to run into some touch competition from Randy Newman. I just think this song plays a bigger part in its respective film. It's also a really dynamic and interesting song, while "We Belong Together" is no "You've Got A Friend In Me".

Best Score:
THE SOCIAL NETWORK (Trent Reznor) - It's a good score and Reznor has been cleaning up at other awards for it. He's also a recognizable talent that people are going to want to see win an Oscar.

Best Makeup:
THE WOLFMAN - I mean, c'mon! I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure Baker won the first ever award in this category for AN AMERICAN WEREWOLF. It would be fitting for him to win again for similar stuff 30 years later.

Best Costume Design:
THE KING'S SPEECH - This film possesses the period costuming the Oscars love and is a front-runner for Best Picture. Its winning here seems highly likely.

Best Art Direction:
THE KING'S SPEECH - There's some tough competition in this category, especially from other critical darlings INCEPTION and TRUE GRIT, but I'm pretty sure this film comes away with it.

Best Editing:

Best Cinematography:
BLACK SWAN - More tough competition, but I think the Academy might just throw BLACK SWAN a bone here. Otherwise look for more SOCIAL NETWORK/KING'S SPEECH padding.

Best Foreign Film:
IN A BETTER WORLD (Denmark) - I have a hard time with these predictions. I'm usually wrong, so I'm just going to go with this film because it won at the Golden Globes.

Best Animated Feature:
TOY STORY 3 - Is there really any doubt?

Best Adapted Screenplay:
THE SOCIAL NETWORK - Maybe some competition from TRUE GRIT, but this seems likely.

Best Original Screenplay:
ANOTHER YEAR - I'm thinking the Academy will throw ANOTHER YEAR a bone here as there isn't a ton of tough competition, though they might just go with THE KING'S SPEECH.

Best Director:
David Fincher (THE SOCIAL NETWORK) - It's Fincher's year.

Best Supporting Actress:
Melissa Leo (THE FIGHTER) - she is cleaning up at awards and doesn't have a ton of high-profile competition.

Best Supporting Actor:
Christian Bale (THE FIGHTER) - It's Bale's year.

Best Actress:
Natalie Portman (BLACK SWAN) - Her only competition is Bening, who would only win the award if the Academy was feeling charitable.

Best Actor:
Colin Firth (THE KING'S SPEECH) - Many people, including myself, think that Firth deserved the win last year for A SINGLE MAN, so his equally deserving performance this year should earn him the win.

Best Picture:
THE SOCIAL NETWORK - I firmly believe the Academy will stay the course and give Fincher's film the win. It's this or The King's Speech, but I think THE SOCIAL NETWORK has a 70/30 edge.

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